DTN Midday Livestock Comments          01/21 11:38

   Cautious Tones Keep the Livestock Complex Leery 

   Heading into Tuesday's afternoon, pay special attention to any positive 
developments in the market's fundamentals because traders are desperately 
yearning for more support. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading gingerly into Tuesday's noon hour as 
traders yearn to see continued fundamental support but aren't willing to 
advance the contracts as they wait for that support to surface. Asking prices 
are noted in the South at $202. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and 
March soybean meal is up $10.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 441.98 
points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is trading mixed, but with a mostly lower tone as 
the market holds its breath waiting to see what develops this week for 
fundamental support. Given that last week packers bought 80,966 head of cattle 
in the negotiated cash cattle market and 68% of them were committed to the 
nearby delivery -- feedlot managers are hopeful to trade cattle higher again 
this week, but steady prices may be the market's outcome. February live cattle 
are up $0.05 at $196.80, April live cattle are down $0.47 at $197.02 and June 
live cattle are up $0.02 at $192.22. Early asking prices are noted in the South 
at $202 plus but are still not established for Northern feedlots. Trade won't 
likely begin to develop until Wednesday at the absolute earliest.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.60 ($332.56) and select up $1.96 
($321.40) with a movement of 81 loads (46.62 loads of choice, 16.27 loads of 
select, 5.63 loads of trim and 12.78 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Upon seeing the continued rally in the corn complex, and the live cattle 
market not lending much support, it really comes as no surprise to see the 
feeder cattle complex trading lower. January feeders are up $0.67 at $274.15, 
March feeders are down $0.72 at $267.32 and April feeders are down $1.10 at 
$267.02. Given that the market's resistance continues to loom around $270, it's 
not likely that the complex will trade substantially higher -- unless 
fundamental support in the form of stronger feed cattle prices prevails and the 
live cattle contracts grow more ambitious to trade higher themselves.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is also trading mixed as the market needs to see 
fundamental support resurface before it will likely attempt to trade higher 
again this week. Consumer demand was excellent last week, but the market's 
technical resistance at $91.00 seems to be weighing heavily against the market 
currently. Not to mention, it's not helping either that pork cutout values are 
slightly lower. February lean hogs are up $0.27 at $81.40, April lean hogs are 
down $1.40 at $86.92 and June lean hogs are down $1.20 at $100.62.

   The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are 
higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.25 with a weighted average 
price of $77.20, ranging from $73.00 to $78.00 on 511 head and a five-day 
rolling average of $79.34. Pork cutouts total 168.60 loads with 141.90 loads of 
pork cuts and 26.71 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.55, $91.76.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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